Pakistan export opportunities · Data to October 2026 · Asia, Africa and Latin America
Goods exports are up 8.5% from July to October. IT grew 17–18% a month. Goods jumped in September and slowed a bit in October.
Goods rose in July and August, jumped in September and eased in October. IT services grew every month. Remittances covered about 101% of the goods deficit from July to October.
Export markets on a 3D globe
01Flow maps: how the markets connect
Three linked views of FY26 receipts and partner trade. Network edges are stated relations, not measured flows.
Hover for figures. Click to isolate; click the background to reset. Every view has a table.
Where export receipts went, FY26 (US$m)
Partner trade, FY26: exports and payments (US$m)
Relations in the sources: markets, products, institutions, programmes
02Goods exports rose in July and August, jumped in September and slowed a bit in October
July–October goods US$11.4bn, up 8.5%; deficit US$14.6bn, up 16%. September US$2.96bn, up 18.5% (provisional). October about US$2.9bn, up 2.8%, roughly flat on September. One month is not yet a trend.
Growth by month and period, FY27 to date
September 2026 by product, year on year
How the momentum growth rates are spread
03IT and software exports
IT services US$1.25bn in July–September FY27, up about 18%. There is no official software-only series: the SBP line covers telecom and computer services, and freelancers sit inside it, not on top of it.
IT services by month: FY27 against the same month of FY26
Freelancers as a share of IT services
Growth across services and goods
04Remittances: bigger than goods exports, and not exports
Workers' remittances reached a record US$41.6bn in FY26, up 8.6%, more than goods exports (US$30.1bn). They are transfers, not export income, so they are excluded from every export total here.
July–October FY27: remittances US$14.8bn, up 14%, covering about 101% of the goods deficit of US$14.6bn. October alone was US$3.9bn, up 13.8%. Reserves reported at a record US$21.5bn; Q1 current account deficit US$874m, against US$755m a year earlier.
Remittances by month, 2026
Remittances against the goods deficit, Jul–Oct FY27
October 2026 inflows by source
05Where the gaps are
Goods exports fell 5.9% in FY26, mostly on food (down US$1.6bn). Food rose 25% in July–September FY27, with rice up 56%. The World Bank puts the export gap at nearly US$60bn; exports are 10.4% of GDP, against about 16% in the 1990s.
Goods exports, July to April: what moved
Africa and Latin America, FY25 and FY26
Sourced markets on the map
Non-textile exports: growth by group
Textile and apparel mix
06What to do, and how hard it is
Reaching either FY27 IT target needs 41–59% growth in one year, against 17.7% observed in July–September. Targets only mean something if a measure changes the growth rate. The measures below are recommendations, not published policy.
Progress to each published target
Growth each target needs, against growth observed
Immediate
0 to 12 months
- Publish one FY27 IT export target, with its definition, and separate software, IT services and freelance series.
- Set market desks for China, the UAE and Bangladesh; Bangladesh fell 3% in July–September.
- Track rice shipments to the Philippines and GCC monthly; confirm the Philippines value with Customs.
- Attach a mission to the Punjab laptop cohort: certification, a client project and an export contract each. Count outcomes, not laptops.
- Open a yarn buyer desk for Vietnam: Pakistan supplies 0.3% of its yarn imports, China 67%.
Short term
FY27 to FY29
- Direct shipping lines to Africa; transshipment adds 15–20% to cost.
- Pharma: register in Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania, toward the US$3bn three-year goal.
- Move textiles up the chain: the group rose 5% in Q1, against about 21% for the rest of goods.
- Value-add critical minerals before export, ahead of Reko Diq output in late 2028.
- Scale freelance and call-centre exports (+49.7% and +19% in FY26).
- Latin America: a market study first; imports are about three times exports.
- Brazil and Argentina: negotiate textile and basmati lines in MERCOSUR talks.
- Japan: activate the 2019 labour memorandum, starting with Japanese-language testing and skills centres in each province.
Long term
2030 and beyond
- ICT to US$15bn: 34% a year to 2030, or 14% a year to 2035.
- Africa to US$5bn by 2030: about 24% a year from US$2.13bn.
- Minerals to US$8bn with effective policy (a study's scenario, not a target): about 28% a year from US$3bn.
- Defence counts only when contracts are signed; the US$13bn is a pipeline estimate.
- Cotton back to 8–9m bales, which the industry body says would ease FX pressure. The 2025–26 estimate is 5.61m against a 10.2m target.
07Value added: FDI, cotton and the raw-goods gap
FDI fell 34% to US$1.64bn in FY26 on the State Bank basis; the Finance Ministry shows US$1.79bn, down 28%. Value-added products were US$11.3bn of US$13.6bn (about 83%) in July–March. July–September FY27 FDI: US$720m, up 20% (provisional).
Cotton is the stall point: traditional textiles fell 7% to US$2.28bn (July–March FY26), and domestic cotton is an estimated 5.61m bales against a 10.2m target. Most raw-goods exports still leave in bulk.
Notes: cotton, and adding value to raw goods
Pink salt. US$36m in FY26; value per tonne fell about 11%, from roughly US$274 to US$243. PIDE puts raw salt at US$150–300 a tonne and processed, branded salt abroad at US$8,000–15,000: 27 to 100 times, a range rather than a trade series. Pink-salt figures disagree across sources, so none is a clean series.
Minerals. Mostly raw. Copper went out as concentrate (US$842m in 2024). Processing could double or triple value (IPRI, no timeframe). The refinery under a US$500m MoU (September 2025) has no stated capacity. IPRI's US$3bn baseline does not match its own US$1.63bn for 2023, so use its tables.
Stone, leather and food. Pakistan was China's third-largest supplier of calcareous building stone in 2025 (US$8.1m, about US$255 a tonne). Finished leather (US$668m) already outweighs raw hides (US$136m), though the ICMA note's sector figures conflict. The September 2026 agri roundtable called for processed, branded products; a PID release records a US$700m halal meat target by 2028, attributed to participants. Mango pulp earned US$1.13m across 13 markets in FY26.
Packaging and brands. This is the common thread across salt, meat, rice and leather: packaging, a national brand, certification, traceability and a GI tag. None prices the brand gain on a foreign shelf, which is the next thing to measure.
Medical devices. Pakistan already makes surgical instruments, the base for more advanced devices. SIMAP puts exports at about US$445m in 2025, down about 10%. Customs data for July 2025 to May 2026 show US$419m, up 1.6%, which does not confirm that decline. Cost pressures: the 2024 National Tax Regime, electricity prices, certification fees and an ageing workforce.
China. The embassy reported three MoUs worth US$250m on medical equipment (January 2025), with no value per deal and no digital product named. At the April 2025 CMEF fair in Shanghai, 15 Sialkot firms exhibited and no deals were reported. China is a technology partner here, not a market.
Regulation and targets. Over 800 device registrations are processed online within 20 days (October 2025). DRAP's devices policy is still at consultation and names no incentives or deadlines. The government target is US$30bn in pharma and device exports over five years, from a base below US$1bn with no baseline year.
Industry claims conflict: a share under 1% of world trade does not fit a US$10bn market, which would make Pakistan's share about 4–5%.
FDI by sector, FY25 and FY26
Tables: cotton buyers, cotton gaps, raw and processed goods, medical-device options, China deals
Who buys yarn and fabric
| Market | Latest figure | Trend or share | Pakistan's position |
|---|---|---|---|
| China, cotton yarn | US$203m, Jan–Jun 2025 | Down 19% | Second to Vietnam among exporters |
| Bangladesh, raw textile materials | US$485m, Jul–Mar FY26 | Down from US$619m in 2021–22 | Declining; periods may not match |
Where the gaps and potential are
| Market or input | Gap | Potential | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam, yarn | Pakistan holds 0.3% of imports | The largest gap identified. Price and quality data are needed before a target is set. | Customs data; all yarn types |
| China, cotton yarn | Yarn exports down 19% in H1 2025; raw textile materials down from a 2023–24 peak | Hold share. No new product line is identified. | Customs data, H1 2025 |
| Bangladesh | Raw-material exports down; Pakistan not named as a cotton supplier | Limited, and depends on cotton supply | Pakistan Textile Council data |
| Brazil and Argentina | The bloc sells Pakistan US$169m of cotton; Pakistan sells it US$209m | Brazil over US$140m and Argentina about US$60m. Textile tariff lines are the negotiating target. | Study estimates; no year given |
| Domestic cotton | PCGA estimate 5.61m bales against a 10.2m target | Restore toward 8–9m bales, which the industry says would ease the foreign-exchange pressure | Industry estimate |
Raw and processed: what the sources show
| Product | Raw or bulk | Processed or branded | Size of gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pink salt | US$36m, FY26; about US$243 a tonne | PIDE estimate: US$8,000 to US$15,000 a tonne | 27 to 100 times (estimate) |
| Copper and minerals | Copper US$842m, 2024, shipped mostly as concentrate | Refinery planned; capacity not stated | Could double or triple value (IPRI; no timeframe) |
| Building stone to China | US$8.1m from 31.7m kg, about US$255 a tonne (2025) | Cut marble US$5.4m, rising | Not priced: volumes for cut stone not given |
| Leather | Raw hides and skins US$136m (2025) | Leather articles US$668m (2025) | About 5 times the raw value (calculated) |
| Mangoes | Fresh US$107m, 2026 season to date | Pulp US$1.13m, FY26 | Different periods; not comparable |
Medical devices: options, ranked by evidence
| Step | What it would be | Partner model | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Precision and specialist instruments | Orthopaedic, cardiovascular and reusable sets, certified to ISO 13485 and CE. | Own brand, or OEM for European buyers. | Strong. Sialkot already makes these, and 15 firms exhibited at CMEF in 2025. |
| 2. Single-use and procedure packs | Sterile kits and disposable instruments. | Own brand. | Weak. No source sizes this. It is a suggestion. |
| 3. Digital and minimally invasive devices | Endoscopes and catheters, with their imaging software. | Joint venture, or a technology licence from a Chinese maker. | Weak. Most MoUs name no product and give no value. |
| 4. Device software and data | Image processing, device firmware and hospital analytics. | Pakistani software firms paired with Chinese hardware. | Idea only. It builds on IT services, US$4.6bn in FY26 (State Bank, via Dawn). |
China deals: what the sources show
| Deal | Parties | Product | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silk Road platform, Jan 2025 | Silk Road (advisory) and Sawuat (Pakistan) | Dental and surgical instruments | Not stated | Agreement. No joint venture stated. |
| Silk Road platform, Jan 2025 | Silk Road and UPH Biopharma (China) | Not stated | Not stated | Agreement. No Pakistani party named. |
| Medical association agreement, Jan 2025 | China-Pakistan Medical Association and an unnamed Hangzhou technology firm | Medical equipment, unspecified | Not stated | Joint ventures and technology transfer mentioned. |
| CMEF Shanghai, Apr 2025 | 15 Sialkot firms | General and specialist surgical instruments | No deals reported | Distributor talks; joint-venture interest. |
08New markets: Asia, Africa and Latin America
Asia: ten listed markets took US$7.45bn in FY26, down 0.3%, led by China and the UAE. Africa: US$2.13bn, down 5%, with Kenya and Tanzania growing fast. Latin America: about US$670m, a region-wide estimate. Defence: a US$13bn pipeline with no realised value until contracts are signed.
Asia: ten listed markets, FY25 and FY26
Asia: export growth so far in FY27
Africa: named markets, FY25 and FY26
Vietnam: what Pakistan sells there, 2024
09Latin America and the Caribbean: where the trade is
Pakistan buys far more from the region than it sells there. FY26: imports about US$2.07bn, exports about US$670m. Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are reported separately: US$341m in FY26, and US$83.9m in July–September FY27, which is not comparable with a full year.
Latin America: estimate and reported figures
Tables: Brazil, Mexico and Argentina; the Caribbean
Brazil, Mexico and Argentina: reported exports and potential
| Market | FY26 exports (US$ m) | Jul–Sep FY27 (US$ m) | Potential (US$ m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 158.7 | 40.9 | Over 140 |
| Mexico | 123.4 | 33.9 | Not stated |
| Argentina | 58.9 | 9.1 | About 60 |
| Total of three | 341.0 | 83.9 |
The Caribbean: three small markets, 2025
| Market | 2025 exports | Largest categories |
|---|---|---|
| Trinidad and Tobago | US$2.30m | Other made textile articles (US$380k); vegetable and fruit preparations (US$343k); man-made staple fibres (US$196k) |
| Jamaica | US$2.87m | No 2025 breakdown available |
| Bahamas | US$0.45m | Pharmaceuticals (US$256k); vegetable and fruit preparations (US$166k) |
| Total of three | about US$5.6m |
10From a laptop to a mission
More than a million laptops have gone out in a decade, and the Punjab programme targets 70,000 laptops and 80,000 scholarships. The number of recipients who reach paid export work is not reported. A laptop is not a mission. Ages 15 to 29 are about 26% of the population, or 62.6 million people.
The chain: laptop to foreign exchange
Box sizes are not to scale. The share of recipients who reach paid work is not reported, so no flow carries a number.
What the arithmetic asks of each graduate
Arithmetic on the Punjab target, not a forecast. Move the slider to narrow the funnel. At low conversion, each graduate has to earn far more.
11Overseas labour: Japan is small, and its demand is an estimate
Pakistan sent 762,499 workers abroad in 2025: about 70% to Saudi Arabia, and 0.3% (2,210) to Japan. Japan's stated need of 820,000 skilled workers by 2028 is an estimate from a private company's chief executive, not a government source.
Where Pakistani workers went, 2025
Tables: destinations, and what is on record for Japan
Where Pakistani workers went, 2025
| Destination | Workers | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 530,256 | 69.5% |
| Qatar | 68,376 | 9.0% |
| UAE | 52,664 | 6.9% |
| Bahrain | 37,726 | 4.9% |
| Kuwait | 6,590 | 0.9% |
| Japan | 2,210 | 0.3% |
| All destinations | 762,499 | 100% |
What is on record for Japan
| Item | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Japan's stated need for skilled workers | 820,000 by 2028 | Estimate by a private company's chief executive |
| Stated shortfall | 525,000 | Same source |
| Sectors added to the Special Skilled Worker programme | 14 | Agreement with the Overseas Employment Corporation, May 2025 |
| Pakistani IT firms' deals at Japan IT Week | 15 firms, over US$600,000 | Business contracts, not worker placements |
| Labour cooperation memorandum | Signed December 2019 | Activation pending as of January 2020; current status not reported |
| Pakistanis registered in Japan | Over 5,000 in ten months | 2023 report; includes students and business |
12Developed markets: the US leads; Europe is slipping; Canada, the UK and Australia are small
The US is the largest single market on TDAP's figures: US$5.91bn in FY26, up 1.3%. A State Bank figure of US$6.13bn is reported, but its own July–May table gives US$5.59bn, so quote the basis with any US figure. Europe is the largest region on TDAP's figures (US$11.15bn, down 1.7%), despite GSP+ tariff preference.
Canada took US$383m (down 4%), and its imports more than doubled, turning a surplus into a US$191m deficit. The UK took US$2.15bn (State Bank, down 0.55%), though July–August rose 7.41%. Australia's exports fell 3.5% to US$275m, and two-way trade fell 31%.
Notes on each market, and the basis behind each figure
United States. APP reports a State Bank figure of US$6.13bn, but the State Bank's own July–May table shows US$5.59bn, so that full year is unconfirmed. This page uses TDAP for the globe and the regional charts. Imports grew faster (up 15.4% on TDAP), and the sources do not explain why. The surplus is about US$2.6bn to US$2.9bn on either basis. July–September FY27 exports rose about 4.5% to US$1.72bn.
Canada. No product breakdown or State Bank figure was extracted, so the cause of the deficit is not known. First check for a Canada plan: an export product list, and the State Bank country series.
Europe. State Bank figures do not reconcile with the TDAP total, so TDAP is used for comparisons. Exports fell despite GSP+ tariff preference, which the EU says depends on full compliance; the sources give no product-level reason. Spain: US$1.56bn, up 5.2%. Northern Europe could not be reconciled and is omitted.
United Kingdom. The UK is about a quarter of Europe's State Bank total, so a fall there moves the whole region. Two months are not a trend. The globe's Europe row uses TDAP, which includes the UK; the UK row uses the State Bank figure. Do not add the two.
Australia. Australia's own data records US$720m of exports to Pakistan in calendar 2025, far above the US$397m import figure. Periods and valuation differ, but the gap is too large for timing alone. The Lahore Chamber's target of at least US$3bn two-way has no year: about 4.5 times today's level. Named areas to expand (workwear, auto parts, leather, spices, marble) are not yet export lines.
Two-way trade, FY26: exports and imports by market
Tables: US, Canada, Europe, UK and Australia
US trade, FY25 and FY26
| Series | FY25 (US$ m) | FY26 (US$ m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports, TDAP | 5,836 | 5,913 | +1.3% |
| Exports, State Bank (APP report; full year not confirmed) | 6,031 | 6,125 | +1.55% |
| Imports, TDAP | 2,878 | 3,321 | +15.4% |
| Imports, State Bank | not stated | 3,265 | +38.9% |
Canada trade, TDAP, FY25 and FY26
| Series | FY25 (US$ m) | FY26 (US$ m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | 399 | 383 | −4.0% |
| Imports | 273 | 574 | +110% |
| Balance | +126 | −191 |
Europe: TDAP and State Bank figures
| Series | FY25 (US$ m) | FY26 (US$ m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TDAP, Europe region total | 11,341 | 11,149 | −1.7% |
| State Bank, Europe total (as reported by Dawn; unreconciled) | 9,106 | 9,089 | −0.18% |
| State Bank, Southern Europe | 3,102 | 3,206 | +3.35% |
| State Bank, Eastern Europe | 776 | 802 | +3.36% |
| State Bank, United Kingdom | not stated | 2,148 | −0.55% |
| State Bank, not broken down (derived) | not stated | about 2,930 | n/a |
UK: what is on record
| Measure | Value | Change | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports, FY26 | US$2,148m | −0.55% | State Bank, via Dawn |
| Exports, July–August FY27 | US$413.8m | +7.41% | State Bank, via APP |
| Fresh mangoes, 2026 season to date | US$29.9m | not stated | Part of the UK total; Pakistan Single Window, via APP |
Australia: trade, 2024-25 and 2025-26
| Series | 2024-25 (US$ m) | 2025-26 (US$ m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan exports to Australia | 285 | 275 | −3.5% |
| Pakistan imports from Australia | 688 | 397 | −42% |
| Two-way goods trade | 973 | 672 | −31% |
13Commodities and smaller sectors: rice and garments led September's growth
September, rupee terms: basmati rice up 168.9%, other rice 131.2%, petroleum products 117.4%, garments 18.5%, towels 15.0%. Cotton yarn (+3.4%) and knitwear (+1.2%) barely moved. Textile group exports rose 5.3% in July–September FY27, led by made-up goods and garments.
Sports goods: US$424.3m in FY26, up 10.1%. Footballs (US$256.7m, up 11.7%) drove it, with volume up 18.5% to 4.7m balls. That lift has reversed: in July–September FY27 the sports goods group fell 17.7% to US$91.3m, and footballs fell 38.4% to US$44.1m.
Industry sources linked the FY26 football growth to orders ahead of the 2026 World Cup. Footballs fell 38.9% in June 2026 and 38.4% in July–September FY27, so the FY26 lift has not held. The July–September lines come from a secondary report of the PBS sheet, not the release itself. The official release names no destination markets.
Punjab: the provincial PIVOT plan targets US$6.8bn of extra exports over 2026–29, mainly in garments, sports goods, leather and footwear, pharmaceuticals, fans and ceramics. The releases used here are national and none gives Punjab's share, so the plan can only be tracked sector by sector.
Four smaller sectors have official figures worth sizing: travel services (up 52.7%, the fastest), seafood, fresh mangoes and gems, which is mainly a policy target. Handicrafts and beach or desert tourism have no usable figures yet. These sectors are not in the scenario model in section 20.
September's rupee exports: groups and product lines
Tables: September by product, sports goods, Punjab and specialty exports, official sector figures, gemstones, where the data stops
September 2026 by product, rupee terms
| Product | Change, Sep y/y | Value, Rs bn |
|---|---|---|
| Basmati rice | +168.9% | 31.12 |
| Other rice | +131.2% | 41.18 |
| Petroleum products | +117.4% | 21.35 |
| Readymade garments | +18.5% | 109.86 |
| Towels | +15.0% | 27.85 |
| Other made-up goods | +8.0% | 21.38 |
| Cotton yarn | +3.4% | 18.42 |
| Knitwear | +1.2% | 132.59 |
| Bed wear | −1.1% | 80.08 |
| Cotton cloth | −2.2% | 41.33 |
Sports goods and footballs, FY26
| Product | FY25 (US$ m) | FY26 (US$ m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Footballs | 229.8 | 256.7 | +11.7% |
| Gloves | 63.3 | 59.6 | −5.9% |
| Other sports goods | 92.4 | 108.1 | +16.9% |
| Total | 385.5 | 424.3 | +10.1% |
Latest official figures
| Sector | Latest figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travel services exports | US$1.115bn, up 52.7% | FY26 | State Bank, via Dawn |
| Fish and seafood exports | US$482m, up 3.6% | FY26 | PBS; ministry claim US$568m |
| Fish and seafood, first two months | US$47.8m, up 3.2% | July–August FY27 | APP |
| Fresh mangoes | US$107.09m; 85,247 tonnes | 2026 season to date | Pakistan Single Window, via APP |
| Gemstones | US$5–7m a year | Year not stated | Ministry, via Profit |
Fresh mangoes: selected markets, 2026 season
| Market | Value (US$ m) | Volume (tonnes) |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 29.92 | 8,078 |
| UAE | 17.98 | 23,025 |
| Kazakhstan | 13.99 | 18,412 |
| Oman | 7.53 | 10,067 |
Gemstones: exports against the target
| Measure | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Official gemstone exports | US$5–7m a year | Ministry; year not stated |
| Target for 2030 | About US$500m a year | National Gemstone Policy, 2026–2030 |
| Share of global trade | About 0.3% | Ministry |
| Trade through informal channels | Over 95% | Ministry |
| Estimated reserves | Over US$450bn | Estimate; not industry turnover |
Punjab and specialty exports: latest figures
| Item | Latest figure | Period | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballs | US$44.1m | July–September FY27 | −38.4% | PBS sheet, via Pakera (5 Nov 2026) |
| Sports goods group (includes footballs) | US$91.3m | July–September FY27 | −17.7% | PBS sheet, via Pakera |
| Leather manufactures | US$181.1m | July–September FY27 | +18.6% | PBS sheet, via Pakera |
| Surgical and medical instruments | US$121.2m | July–September FY27 | +8.8% | PBS sheet, via Pakera |
| Carpets and rugs | No value published | FY26 | −20.2% | PBS, via Dawn (21 Jul 2026) |
| Computer software exports | US$44.1m | August 2026 | +0.5% | SBP, as reported by TechX |
| Software consultancy | US$114.3m | August 2026 | +29.8% | SBP, as reported by TechX |
| IT services, all | US$394m | August 2026 | +17% | Bol News (16 Sep 2026) |
| Human hair | No official export value | — | — | Rupee prices only (Express Tribune, 9 Aug 2026) |
| Handicrafts | No reliable figure | — | — | A reported −69% sits in a garbled table; not used |
| Punjab, all exports | No series; target US$6.8bn extra, 2026–29 | Plan period | — | Express Tribune (31 Oct 2026) |
Where the data stops
| Sector | What exists | What is missing |
|---|---|---|
| Handicrafts | Named craft clusters; one unsourced estimate of “a few hundred million dollars” | Official series, share of exports, destinations |
| Coastal tourism (Gadani, Sonmiani) | A new resort at Gadani; a national green tourism initiative | Visitor counts, revenue, beds, targets |
| Desert tourism (Cholistan) | A desert rally held in February 2026 | Visitor counts, spending, accommodation |
| Human hair | Rupee price reports (Aug 2026) | Official export value, volume and destinations |
| Creative and gaming | Government centre of excellence (Rs2.52bn) | Any export value |
14From steel importer to steel exporter
The optimistic case. It holds only if the Pakistan Steel Mills revival is built; the figures here describe the starting point.
Pakistan is a steel importer today: 3.87m tonnes of iron and steel from July 2025 to May 2026, up 22.6%, and scrap (the input for billets and rebar) up 4.2%. July 2026 alone reached 518,392 tonnes, US$313m, up 52.4%. The customs data has no export line, so exports cannot be sized. The mill stopped in 2015 and was formally closed in 2024 (Dawn).
The revival, and domestic demand
The revival is the test. A July 2025 agreement with a Russian company covers reviving and expanding the plant, plus new mills in Karachi. A November 2025 protocol followed, then an April 2026 deal with a third protocol and capacity planned at 3m tonnes a year. These are plans, with no investment amount or completion year. A January 2026 briefing set 2027 as the earliest construction start, after an EPC contract.
Domestic demand comes first: per-capita steel use was about 36 kg in FY23, against a global average of about 222 kg (AHL, via Dawn). Exports start only after that gap closes, or buyers abroad are found.
Steel test: the milestones, in order
Milestone table, with sources
Steel test: what must happen first
| Milestone | Status in the sources | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Revival agreement | Signed 11 Jul 2025, Moscow; new mills in Karachi also agreed | Dawn |
| Second protocol | Signed, Nov 2025 | Profit |
| Third protocol, 3 million tonnes capacity | Reported Apr 2026; no value given | ProPakistani |
| EPC contract | Needed before construction; not reported as signed | Profit, Jan 2026 |
| Construction start | Target 2027; no completion year. The only dollar figure is an asset valuation of about US$139m, which the Russian firm sought. | Profit, Jan 2026 |
| Steel exports | No export target found | None |
| Iron and steel imports, Jul 2025 to May 2026 | 3.87 million tonnes, up 22.6% | PBC |
15Russia and the Central Asia corridor
Russia is a small market: exports US$49.9m in FY26, down 27.6%; imports down 66.9% to US$57.8m. Trade is now close to balanced. The total is disputed, and no source reconciles the bases: US$107.7m on the bank basis for FY26, US$1.81bn for July 2023–June 2024 (goods and services), and US$700.7m for calendar 2024 (goods).
Visit dates are not final. The latest report gives 30 November as the start; an earlier estimate said the first week of December.
The next visit, and the corridor
Next test: the Prime Minister's visit, which Daily Pakistan (24 October 2026) reports as starting 30 November. Dates are not final. The agenda covers discounted Russian oil and gas, trade, investment and Pakistan Steel Mills. No value is attached, and CPEC is not on the agenda.
The corridor is the stronger case. In June 2026 Pakistan's Energy Minister said Russia supports linking the INSTC to Gwadar. No 2026 source reports Russia joining CPEC; the interest dates back to 2016–19. The defensible claim is interest and a route. Membership is not confirmed.
Pakistan–Russia trade by calendar year
Top lines of trade with Russia, 2025
Tables: three trade bases, and Central Asia with Azerbaijan
Three trade bases, none reconciled
| Figure | Period | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US$1.81bn | Jul 2023 to Jun 2024 | Goods and services; central bank data | Arab News, Jul 2025 |
| US$700.7m | Calendar 2024 | Goods; ITC, World Bank, SBP | FPCCI, May 2026 |
| US$236m | Jul 2024 to May 2025 | Not stated | Arab News, Jul 2025 |
| US$107.7m (exports US$49.9m plus imports US$57.8m) | FY26 | Bank basis; SBP | SBP |
Central Asia and Azerbaijan, FY25 and FY26
| Market | Exports FY25 | Exports FY26 | Change | Payments FY25 | Payments FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | 98.2 | 98.0 | −0.2% | 129.6 | 6.4 |
| Uzbekistan | 64.1 | 75.1 | +17.1% | 79.1 | 12.1 |
| Tajikistan | 30.7 | 11.9 | −61.3% | 19.1 | 3.3 |
| Turkmenistan | 1.7 | 1.2 | −29.5% | 16.6 | 5.9 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 4.0 | 4.0 | +1.3% | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Five states | 198.7 | 190.2 | −4.3% | 245.0 | 28.5 |
| Azerbaijan | 8.1 | 97.6 | ×12.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
16Africa: a broad base of buyers, led by Kenya
The ten listed African markets took US$1.06bn in FY26, up 23.8%, led by Kenya (US$316m, up 30.9%). Over 2020–24, exports to Africa grew about 11.3% a year to US$2.39bn in 2024, 7.4% of all exports (ITC, via PBC). The SBP and ITC series are different bases and do not add up.
Pharma is not yet an African engine: pharmaceutical exports fell 30.7% in July 2025 to May 2026, and medicaments to Africa were US$16.5m in 2024. Section 07 has no African sales record for medical devices.
Ten African markets: FY26 export receipts
Table: Africa in one table, two bases
Africa in one table: two bases
| Measure | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Exports to Africa, 2024 | US$2,390.2m (7.4% of exports) | Calendar; ITC, via PBC |
| Exports to Africa, 2020 to 2024 | US$8,610.7m total; 11.3% a year | Calendar; ITC, via PBC |
| Ten listed markets, FY26 | US$1,057.7m (up 23.8%) | Fiscal; SBP receipts |
| Medicaments to Africa, 2024 | US$16.5m (2020: US$20.7m) | Calendar; ITC, via PBC |
| Pharmaceutical exports, all destinations, Jul to May | US$296.5m, down 30.7% | Customs; PBC |
17Unexplored markets: several are not new
Several “new” markets are not new. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Türkiye fell from US$1.29bn in FY25 to US$639m in FY26 (−50.6%); each needs a diagnosis before anyone pitches them again. Growth is in Slovenia, Azerbaijan, Tanzania, Mozambique, Nigeria, Kenya and Uzbekistan; each needs a product and buyer check first. Iran is not charted: zero in both years, with no reason given.
Seafood and China meat are assessed from product lines rather than market tables, so they carry more uncertainty.
Change in export receipts, FY26 against FY25
Table: verify-first list, status and next check
Verify-first list: status and next check
| Market or line | Evidence | Status | Check before use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia | US$57.9m to US$99.3m (+71.5%) | Growing, new | Product mix is not in the source |
| Azerbaijan | US$8.1m to US$97.6m | Jump, no stated cause | Confirm the buyer and product |
| Tanzania | US$81.9m to US$192.2m (+134.8%) | Fast growth | ITC 2024 is US$131.0m; bases differ |
| Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Türkiye | Combined US$1,293m to US$639m (−50.6%) | Former buyers, falling | Find the cause before pitching |
| Iran | Zero in both years | Not charted | No reason given in the source |
| China meat (boiled beef) | US$14.5m in 2025, up 177% | Small base | Check poultry and halal lines |
| Seafood, all destinations | US$445.2m, Jul to May, up 4.2% | Steady | Settle the full-year basis (US$482m to US$500m earlier) |
| Seafood to Russia | Below US$4.1m in 2025 | Not a market yet | Confirm with a product-level series |
| Africa pharma and medical | Pharma down 30.7%; medicaments to Africa US$16.5m (2024) | Not evidenced | Find an African buyer first |
18Market dashboard: region to market
FY26 receipts, SBP bank basis. Tap a region to drill down and a market for its profile; double-tap to go back.
Where export receipts went, FY26
19Defence and the Gulf: pacts are not sales, and labour is not export income
Since mid-2025 Pakistan has signed or discussed defence arrangements with Gulf and Asian partners. The government has confirmed the Saudi mutual defence pact, the Makkah agreement and the Kuwait protocol; none states a value. Values in circulation are unconfirmed. A pact is not a sale, and a memorandum is not a contract.
The pipeline is far larger than exports. A Karachi brokerage note (KTrade Securities, January 2026) puts potential orders at US$13bn, an estimate rather than realised exports. Arms and ammunition exports were US$22.38m in 2024 (UN COMTRADE, via Express Tribune).
Defence is one of the nine streams in section 20. Read its base against the actual figure below.
Gulf and MENA: labour, IT, data centres and food
Gulf demand shows up in labour, IT and data-centre roles, food and trade routes. Most of the evidence is headlines and job listings, and none of it is in the export figures.
Labour: 13,865 UAE employment visas in January–July 2025. Kuwait reportedly lifted a 19-year visa ban on Pakistanis in 2025 (labour ministry, via Dawn); no Kuwaiti statement was found. Trade: goods exports to the Middle East fell just over 2% to about US$3.09bn in FY26 (State Bank, via Dawn and Profit).
Worker placements are not export income; they show up as remittances (section 04). IT and data-centre jobs are individual placements, not a services export figure.
Gulf worker movements, 2025
Tables: defence arrangements, defence estimate against actual, Gulf opportunities by evidence
Defence arrangements by status
| Partner | Instrument | Date | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement | 17 Sep 2025 | None stated | In force |
| Saudi Arabia, Türkiye | Makkah tripartite joint defence agreement | Aug 2026 | None stated | Signed |
| Saudi Arabia | JF-17 jets-for-loans conversion | Talks reported Jan 2026 | US$2bn of loans under discussion | Not confirmed. Foreign Office spokesperson, Jan 2026: “At this stage, we do not know such a deal.” |
| Kuwait | Protocol Agreement-2026: military training, border management | 27 Aug 2026 | None stated | Signed; no arms sales in the text |
| Qatar, Türkiye, Indonesia | Badr memorandum on defence manufacturing | 21 Oct 2026 | None stated | Memorandum; no arms sales or JF-17 mentioned |
| Azerbaijan | JF-17 deal (reported) | ISPR sale announced Sep 2024; reported again Jun 2025 | Not stated by government | Value not confirmed |
| Indonesia | Jets and drones, including an offer of 40 JF-17s | Talks, Jan 2026 | None stated | Not confirmed |
| Bangladesh | JF-17 sale | Talks, early 2026 | None stated | Not confirmed |
| Sudan | Defence deal | Jan 2026 report | US$1.5bn | Pakistan "nears" deals; signing not confirmed |
Defence: estimate against actual
| Measure | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Potential defence orders | US$13bn | KTrade Securities (Karachi brokerage) note, Jan 2026; an estimate |
| Arms and ammunition exports, 2024 | US$22.38m | UN COMTRADE, via Express Tribune; no Pakistani series found |
Gulf and MENA opportunities by evidence
| Market | Opportunity | Evidence | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | Labour: employment visas | 13,865 UAE visas, Jan–Jul 2025; 52,664 UAE departures in 2025 | Medium |
| Kuwait | Labour: visa access | 19-year ban lifted in 2025; labour agreement under negotiation | Medium |
| Saudi Arabia | IT talent | Call for IT workers (Nov 2024); talent exports reported at a new high (Feb 2026) | Medium |
| Saudi Arabia | Data-centre technicians | Roles advertised; 80 student offers (Jan 2026) | Low to medium |
| Saudi Arabia | Healthcare professionals | Memorandum with a Saudi healthcare company; date unknown | Low to medium |
| Gulf states | Food security | 40 food items approved for export; no volumes found | Medium |
| Iraq and Iran route | Land-route trade | Iranian land routes used from April 2026; no volumes | Low to medium |
| Oman | Work permits | A new work-permit service; headline only | Low |
| Gulf | Reconstruction and engineering | Policy call; no contracts identified | Low |
20What the numbers could mean by FY30
Each stream has a low, most-likely and high assumption. Nine streams: ICT services, other business services, Asian markets, Africa, Latin America, minerals, pharma, textiles and defence. Freelance and call-centre exports sit within IT and services. Remittances and food are not counted.
The regional streams overlap with the product streams, so the total is not a forecast of export income. These are outputs of stated assumptions, not forecasts.
Scenario
Scenario mix, FY26 to FY30 (US$ bn)
FY30 uplift by stream
Total FY30 uplift: spread of outcomes
Outcome map
How the streams move together
Table: assumptions by stream
Assumptions
Ranges are assumptions, not forecasts. The basis for each stream is listed.
| Stream | FY26 base (US$ bn) | Basis |
|---|
21Frontier summary
One card per frontier. Open a card for its evidence, the gap and the recommended measure.
22Trade missions, expos and export deals since 2023
Every export-related expo, trade mission, forum, visit, MoU and contract in the sources for Pakistan, January 2023 to 14 November 2026, newest first. Click a year or region to filter, or use the chips.
Most entries state no dollar value. Where one is given, it is labelled with its type: an export deal, an MoU total (which mixes trade, investment and export items), an investment, a target or a pledge. These types are not comparable with each other or with export statistics.
China's May 2026 Hangzhou conference has two totals that do not agree: US$1.22bn from the information ministry, and about US$7.54bn across about 207 MoUs in a later Arab News report. Both are shown.
Gaps: Hong Kong and Taiwan (none verified), Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan for 2023 to 2024 (none verified), and the Glasgow conference (not found). Entries marked "outcome not checked" or "not confirmed" are listed as planned, not as completed.
Events by year
Events by region
Dated list
How to read the value types
- Export deal: an export order or contract reported with a value.
- MoU total: the sum of MoUs signed at an event. It mixes trade, investment and export items.
- Investment: an investment figure. It is not trade.
- Target: a stated goal for future trade. It is not achieved trade.
- Pledge: a promise with no signed deal behind it.
- Deals or projection: as the source states them, with no further check.
- No value stated: the source gives no figure for the event.
23Sources
Each group is a publisher; each link opens the original.